This study investigates the nexus between tourism development and environmental sustainability in the Aral Sea region of Uzbekistan—one of the world's most ecologically degraded areas—now emerging as an ecotourism destination. A quantitative survey was administered to 300 respondents comprising local residents, tourists, and tourism industry stakeholders. Data were analyzed using multiple regression and Pearson correlation through SPSS v.26. Results confirm that tourism development (β = 0.312), community participation (β = 0.251), policy and governance (β = 0.198), and ecological carrying capacity (β = 0.167) are significant predictors of environmental sustainability (R² = 0.612, p < 0.001). All four hypotheses are supported. Policymakers and tourism operators should co-develop carrying-capacity thresholds, integrate community voices in eco-tourism planning, and enforce green-certification frameworks. Sustainable tourism planning can restore community livelihoods, preserve indigenous cultural identity, and rebuild ecological resilience in post-disaster regions. This is among the first quantitative empirical studies to model sustainable tourism determinants specifically for the Aral Sea region, contributing novel primary evidence to the post-disaster ecotourism literature.
Publication Date: 2026-06-23