This study examines the key antecedents of tourists' decisions to visit Uzbekistan by employing a Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) approach grounded in push–pull theory and destination image theory. Five latent constructs—Cultural Heritage Attractions (CHA), Tourism Infrastructure Quality (TIQ), Perceived Safety and Security (PSS), Digital Information Sources (DIS), and Value for Money (VFM)—are modelled as predictors of Tourist Visit Decision (TVD). Primary data were gathered from 320 international tourists via a structured questionnaire. A two-stage SEM procedure (Anderson & Gerbing, 1988) was applied using AMOS 26: a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) established measurement validity, and a structural model tested five directional hypotheses. Model fit was evaluated using χ²/df, CFI, TLI, RMSEA, and SRMR. The measurement model demonstrated excellent fit (CFI = 0.963, RMSEA = 0.051). All five hypotheses were supported. CHA exerted the strongest structural path coefficient on TVD (β = 0.42, p < 0.001), followed by VFM (β = 0.29, p < 0.001) and PSS (β = 0.23, p < 0.001). The model explained 58.3% of variance in TVD. Cross-sectional data limit causal generalization. The SEM model is specific to the international tourist segment. Findings are applicable to Uzbekistan's destination marketing organizations (DMOs) and the State Committee for Tourism Development. Heritage site enhancement, value-focused pricing, and safety communication are priority investment areas for sustaining Uzbekistan's international tourism growth. Evidence-based tourism policy informed by tourist preferences supports socio-economic development and cultural preservation in local communities. This is the first study to apply AMOS-based SEM to a multi-construct tourist decision model specifically in the Uzbekistan context, contributing robust structural evidence to the underrepresented Central Asian tourism literature.
Publication Date: 2026-06-21