This paper uses the 2015 US Transgender Survey to estimate the association between gender-affirming hormone therapy (GAHT) initiation and the risk of running away among transgender adolescents during the first year of treatment. Our event study approach compares transgender adolescents who started GAHT with those who initiated GAHT a year later. Results indicate that GAHT is associated with a 2 percentage point reduction in the risk of running away from home, which amounts to a 20 percent decrease in the risk of running away. The association is largest when GAHT begins at younger ages (i.e., 14–15).
Publication Date: 2026-05